Trade #1: Bitcoin Short

Bitcoin price has been flat and with low volume for the past few days, not perfect trading conditions. But here I see a short opportunity was we approach 15-min leg start. I plan on taking 75% profits as a scalp at around 9300 and letting the rest run.

XBTUSD 15-min time frame

Easy stop-loss above swing high. Blue lines show 15-min levels. White line shows monthly level whose origin is the low of the candle which made our all time high.

5-min chart is showing negative divergence on MACD. 15-min starting to show the same, suggesting a slowing of bullish momentum.

This level has been respected in the past and on first touch should get a reaction here also.

XBTUSD 1-hour time frame

The low volume is a concern, but we seem to be in a trading range and higher time frame distribution pattern suggesting a drop to 8300 to 8700 is coming.

Update 1

My short orders are 9353 and 9362. So far I haven’t been filled. Price has come down to test 9300 so my new scalp target is now 9213.5.

XBTUSD 15-min time frame updated

Normally I would remove my short orders as the first touch has played out and there is greater risk we can progress higher on a second approach. But overall I still think we can go lower as we begin to form a double top pattern on the hourly. The stop loss is nice and close by if it doesn’t play out.

Update 2

Looks like I should have removed the orders after inital no-fill afterall.

This is the primary lesson to take away – when scalping low time frames on first touches, if we miss the initial move we should remove our orders.

Bitmex order

Overall loss of -0.00151406 XBT due to stop loss slippage (Actual stop loss was placed around 9400).

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